Advantage on tossing first with 2-4-6 rule

0 votes
asked Feb 19, 2016 by Albert62 Kubbnoob (670 points)
Has been ever calculated the advantage in tossing first using the 2-4-6 opener system? If I remember correctly starting with 4 batons is around 12% and using the Basel opener system (3 batons) in nil.

2 Answers

+2 votes
answered Mar 2, 2016 by ChrisHodges Kubblic ❚ (7,300 points)
The advantage of 2-4-6 varies greatly depending on how those first 2 batons go.

Assuming the two teams are of equivalent skill, if the opening team hits:

0 kubbs then they are behind, winning only about 40% of the time

1 kubb then they are winning, carrying the game about 60% of the time

2 kubbs on the opener is absolutely dominating, with the opening team cruising to a victory about 75% of the time.

Interestingly, those benchmarks (40, 60, & 75) hold true over a very large band of performance, from beginner to expert, just so long as the teams are equal. However, as the frequency of hitting 1 or 2 goes up for better teams, the net turn one advantage scales up as well.
commented Mar 7, 2016 by Evan F Ironkubb ✭ (1,960 points)
Hitting 2 to start the game is crippling to the 2nd team.  Great analysis Chris.  Thank you
0 votes
answered Feb 27, 2016 by Fraim Kubbnoob (640 points)
I would imagine there are not enough games in the wiki to do accurate stats on 2-4-6.