What trends do you predict for 2013 Kubb season?

0 votes
asked Nov 13, 2012 by thingles Kubblic ❚ (6,110 points)

In the past couple of years the spread of drilling has been, in my opinion, one of the driving trends in Kubb. I've heard Eric Anderson say many times that just a couple of years ago almost nobody was drilling and now people pick the technique up right away.

What do you predict will be the trend of the 2013 Kubb season?

commented Nov 27, 2012 by Dobbie Kubblic ❚ (6,450 points)
I see the meta-game evolving, as we gain more and more stats on PlanetKubb, and as those stats become more accessible. I feel that this will change the decisions people make in the game, and will be referenced in tournament play. Here are some examples:

"Stand these kubbs this way....stats/video show their first blaster will never take a hard-angle shot at the group."

"Don't place the punishment kubb there against Hodges. His rescues are 96% rescue by the 2nd attempt, and there are 4 fields in play."

or....

"From my research on PlanetKubb, this team historically stays on the same side that they throw the initial baton toss from. We need to beat them to the pitch and pick Side A, cause if we win the toss, we will choose to throw first....and most likely, get the favorable side too boot!"

Right or wrong, or whether you think this is bad/good for the sport, people will use this to their advantage, and I could see this trending as stats become more accessible.

2 Answers

0 votes
answered Nov 13, 2012 by thingles Kubblic ❚ (6,110 points)

Of course I had one idea for this before asking the question! :-)

I'm going to predict that rescue kubbs will start to become more common in 2013. I've yet to see one in a US tournament, even on video and plenty of games have been scored. But we do see them in videos in Europe. I also know that some teams have been practicing the technique and using it very proficiently in Friendly play.

I predict this will be a technique that many teams will work on to have at their disposal.

commented Nov 14, 2012 by Evan F Ironkubb ✭ (1,960 points)
Viva Los Padres successfully rescued a punishment kubb against the Goofy Kubbers in the semi-finals of the Des Moines Klassic.  I believe it was on their last attempt that they hit it.  It was the first time I had seen that tactic used successfully in a tournament.  I suspect that it'd be fairly easy to defend against if I had placed the punishment at about 7 to 7 1/2 meters instead of on the baseline.  I have had very little success in practice at this technique unless the kubb is right on the sideline or baseline and would be curious what others experience is with this tactic.
0 votes
answered Nov 14, 2012 by garrickvanburen Kubblic ❚ (7,330 points)
Throwing a couple kubbs deep. The game play analysis continues to confirm Terry Ekelöf's strategy - that the most you can safely hit short is about 5. Any more and the remaining advantage line means game over.
commented Nov 14, 2012 by Dano Ironkubb ✭ (2,330 points)
I'm thinking the better a team's  inkastare  is the more you can afford to throw short. If your driller cannot keep the Kubb's in the basket and spreads them all over the pitch, it may  may be tough to hit down even 5 field kubbs consistently.
commented Nov 14, 2012 by garrickvanburen Kubblic ❚ (7,330 points)
Dano - check out this graph:



It shows the chances of an advantage line being left against each number of kubbs thrown in.

Assuming all kubbs in the data are thrown short – these stats support the idea that inkastares should throw 1 long – especially when they have 6, 8, or 9 to throw in.

Assuming that 1 remaining field kubb is the one thrown long, the chances of the game being immediately over drop by 15%, 10%, and 40% (!!!!) respectively.
commented Nov 14, 2012 by Dano Ironkubb ✭ (2,330 points)
I love all the stats and graphs. Let's imagine Dobbie or someone of his skill is doing the drilling. I'd have them start throwing kubbs. if they throw 5 tight I'd advise them to keep throwing into the pile. if number 6 or 7 or 8 skips or bounces away from the basket that may be the time to throw long. I do enjoy and learn a lot from all the Data you guys come up with, fantastic stuff. I've asked this before, what do you guys do for a day job?
commented Nov 14, 2012 by ChrisHodges Kubblic ❚ (7,300 points)
I understand the graph, and I think that I, as much as anyone, like to use math to try to uncover subtle aspects the game and to help dictate strategy, but I think that there is a strong counter-argument here and that is one of resource management.

I haven’t recalculated since you added the most recent slew of games, but as of the 40 or so that were in a couple weeks ago the winning teams were clearing field kubbs at about the rate of 1.5 kubbs per baton, or conversely, about 0.67 batons per kubb. Base kubb hit rates are about 35%, meaning they ‘cost’ about 2.87 batons. This means that every kubb that COULD be in the house but is instead thrown long has a net cost of about 2.2 batons, and that is only on the front-end. You have also very likely ensured that your opponent has fewer kubbs to inkast back to you, meaning you’ve then reduced THEIR chances of immediately losing the game (your chances of winning) by 15%, 10%, or 40%, and they don’t even have to make the choice to throw one deep.

Believe me – I’m all in on the concept that most games are won and lost by advantage lines, but I still think the best way to limit them is by tightening groups and eliminating 4 meter misses, not taking kubbs out of play to put back on your baseline. I will not be an ‘early adopter’ of this strategy, and I doubt I will ever come around to it unless and until it is used effectively against me. If I am proved to be wrong-headed and it costs me a tournament or two I will sit up and take notice, but until then I’m going to be miserly with my batons and keep the field kubbs in play - I worked hard to get them there man, I don’t want to give them back!
commented Nov 14, 2012 by Evan F Ironkubb ✭ (1,960 points)
I have to agree with Chris on this one.  I'd rather focus on improving inkast to group the kubbs tighter and make it easier to clear them.  I'd welcome 2 to 3 person teams to start throwing kubbs deep against me.  It may make more sense in a 6 person game where I suspect the field kubb clearing is less efficient.
commented Nov 14, 2012 by Chad B Ironkubb ✭ (3,130 points)
I also agree with Chris on this one.  I would rather play the short game and make the other team throw back as many kubbs as possible.  I guess the team you are playing with will determine your strategy.  A 6 person team that doesn't have at least 3 good blasters may want to throw deep.  Although I have not seen it played that way yet.
commented Nov 14, 2012 by garrickvanburen Kubblic ❚ (7,330 points)
Chad, Evan, and Chris - I don't expect you to adopt this strategy. I expect your opponents to. :)
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