My preferred method in your scenario is to go with the low % triple. There's a high percent change you will at least hit "something", and maybe you will get 2.......even if you have to use 3 batons, that's only 1 more baton than the "for-sure" (nothing is for sure) double and the ensuing single. Now, If you hit the triple, you gain some confidence, get a rise from your teammates, and get 2 additional cracks at the baseline. That can be big swing.
However, to answer more generically....I seem to attempt to utilize the baton more for the doubles than the kubb. If you hit the kubb on the top and the facing is right, you can get that baton to ricochet in a perfect propeller. And that can truly do some damage up in there.